Among the numerous travel destinations Asia Pacific remains the biggest driver of demand in tourism.
According to data of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), it is expected to have over 7.2 billion passengers to travel in 2035, comparing with about 3.8 billion air travelers in 2016. The calculation rest on a 3.7% annual Compound Average Growth Rate (CAGR) mentioned in the release of the latest update to the association’s 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast.
According to the AITA data, over the next two decades China will add 817 million new passengers for a total of 1.1 billion, India 322 million to 422 million, Indonesia 135 million to 242 million, Vietnam 112 million to a total of 150 million.
However, according to the data, the 10 fastest-growing markets will be in sub-Saharan Africa, and in addition, will be increasing with an ambitious annual rate of 8%. The high demand for the tourism in Asia Pacific is expecting to expand to the half of the new passengers over the next 20 years.
These numbers are highly impressional. Moreover, the results of IATA researches show that China will displace the US as the world’s largest aviation market, which involves the traffic to, from and within the country. The highest demand is expected to be around 2029. India will substitute the UK for third place in 2026. And Indonesia pending to replace Italy in the top 10 largest aviation markets.
The 20-year forecast supose to realize three scenarios. The first and the most realistic scenario assumes a doubling of passengers with a 3.7% annual CAGR. The demand could also could triple the 2015 level. Alternatively, if the modern trend towards trade protectionism accelerates, growth could cool to 2.5% annual CAGR which would see passenger numbers achieve 5.8 billion by 2035.
In general, Asia-Pacific will experience an extra 1.8 billion annual passengers by 2035, for an overall market size of 3.1 billion.